NIGHT WATCH #2 · WX
The full board
12 cities in Asia · August 1 · closes 12:00 UTC
city
model
market
mkt %
smartx
our %
edge
Guangzhou
Open market→
28.7°
30°
33%
30°
30%
-3
Chengdu
Open market→
27.1°
26°
31%
27°
20%
-10
Taipei
Open market→
34.4°
36°
42%
36°
30%
-11
Seoul
Open market→
30.0°
32°
40%
31°
20%
-19
Manila
Open market→
30.2°
33°
42%
32°
20%
-21
Shenzhen
Open market→
28.6°
28°
27%
30°
4%
-22
Beijing
Open market→
36.9°
35°
32%
37°
4%
-28
Tokyo
Open market→
37.2°
35°
33%
37°
4%
-29
Kuala Lumpur
Open market→
30.0°
33°
53%
32°
20%
-32
Wellington
Open market→
9.9°
10°
54%
11°
20%
-33
Singapore
Open market→
28.8°
32°
56%
31°
20%
-36
Shanghai
Open market→
37.4°
36°
47%
38°
4%
-43
Model is the raw forecast. Smartx is the same forecast after the city's bias and today's observed error. Market is the bucket the board thinks most likely, and mkt % is the mid of its order book right now, not the last trade. Our % is our own probability on that same bucket. Edge is ours minus the board's, so a positive number means the board is pricing our outcome below where we read it, and the mint rail marks those. A dot means a live bot holds it. Trading closes at 12:00 UTC.
SmartX Watch 0.0. Numbers get written down, including the wrong ones. Nothing here is financial advice.